Day: November 5, 2018

Talking Turkey

Turkey’s economic challenges arise from the imbalances created during the economic boom that saw poverty halved between 2002 and 2011, extensive urbanization, and integration in the world economy through trade and capital flows.  The dramatic economic changes saw the rise of Erdogan, who was re-elected as President for a second term in June.  His party …

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Euro and Yen Outlook

Analysts are also more bullish the yen than the dollar as the similar chart below illustrates. Based on current volatility, the dollar will likely (74.3%) be between about JPY99.90 and JPY119.10 in 12-months (blue lines).  The probability distribution is represented by the red dotted line. Based on current interest rate differentials and a spot rate of JPY113.15, …

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Risk Returns

Overview:  Cynicism over the prospects of a resolution to US-Chinese trade tensions and a break-through in UK-EC Brexit talks appears to be injecting a more cautious tone to the capital markets.  The recovery in equities has stalled.  The MSCI Asia Pacific benchmark halted a four-day rally, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index is off …

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